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Jeff Siegel's analysis


UNION-TRIBUNE

August 16, 2008

FIRST RACE – BRAN JAMMAS likes to lay back and produce a late run and with a good recent effort over this course she should be primed for a winning effort. JUSTICE IS BRIEF, right there in her last three, should fire another big shot and is a “must use” in the exotics. PALOMA'S FLIGHT lands the good rail, figures to be forwardly placed and may stick around for a minor award. Long shot: Chateau Suisse.
SECOND RACE – DRAFT CHOICE has been a money burner (beaten three times as the favorite) but he should enjoy a soft pace prompting trip outside so we'll give him one more chance. Pedroza should have him on or near the lead throughout. KAPTAIN KORDOUGH, a solid runner up in his debut, figures tough if he runs back to that effort today. PARTY MANDATE is a first timer with a series of fast works for Moreno. He looks like a live item under Nakatani. Long shot: Picturehouse.


THIRD RACE – WORLD WAR looked good winning from a slightly softer group recently and looks tough on the mandatory raise for new trainer Avila. Rosario should have him rolling in the lane. PRESIDENTIAL CAUSE isn't all that keen on winning but he fits on numbers and a repeat of his last race makes him a solid threat. AUSTIE figures to be running on late and could be tough if he can avoid trouble from the rail. Long shot: Kingsburg.
FOURTH RACE – BIRDIE BIRDIE ran well to be a closing third in her debut sprinting and should improve considerably with that effort behind and the added distance of today's race. A recent bullet work should have her on edge. CHERRYBLOSSOMMISS, nosed out in a similar two turn turf maiden affair, figures in the battle once again. FRIENDLY SILK just missed in her only start last winter and rates a big look if cranked up in her comeback for Lobo. Long shot: Tuner.
FIFTH RACE – SAXOPHONE exits a strong race for the level and doesn't have all that much to beat in this restricted $12,500 claimer. Baze should have him along in time. RHODINE'S KID looked good graduating in May but hasn't been seen since. A repeat of that race today makes him a strong threat. OLDTOPHATANDTAILS , third in a softer spot recently, won't have to improve much to be a major player today. Long shot: Courageous Captain.
SIXTH RACE – WATSNEWPUSSYKAT has trained like a good thing for Mitchell and looks ready for a winning effort in an open dash for maiden juvenile fillies. G'S HEAVENLY UNION, a closing third in her debut, figures to be dangerous from off the pace right back. CASINO GOLD is a fast-working first timer from the Baffert barn and is bred for much speed. Long shot: Telling Stories.
SEVENTH RACE – HIATUS graduated in good style in just his second career start last month and with a forward move today seems capable of winning right back in a competitive first level allowance affair. Valdivia stays aboard for Ellis. FARLEIGH HOUSE wants patient handling will be dangerous from off the pace with his best effort. BAD BOY lacks a winning punch but fits on speed figures and should get a piece of it. Long shot: Sir Bell.
EIGHTH RACE – SATAN'S CIRCUS ran lights out when second in the American Oaks in her U.S. debut and anything close to that effort today lands her in the winner's circle. STORM MESA keeps improving with each outing and is the one to fear most as she seeks her sixth straight score. This clearly will be her toughest test yet. MAGICAL FANTASY wants to lag and make a run and is worth using in the exotics at a big price. Long shot: Bel Air Sizzle.
NINTH RACE – ELUSIVE CHIEF drops to the bottom rung maiden claiming level and has little to beat. A sharp recent drill over the track should have him on edge and Espinoza stays aboard. BLACK TUX, a route to sprint play, retains Flores and fits with these on speed figures. BIGUM is a 19-race maiden and not one to trust, but should at least earn a minor award. Long shot: Tough Continent.
Best bet: Birdie Birdie (4th).


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